Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China.

COVID-19 has negative impacts on supply chain operations between countries. The novelty of the study is to evaluate the sectoral effects of COVID-19 on global supply chains in the example of Turkey and China, considering detailed parameters, thanks to the developed System Dynamics (SD) model. During COVID-19 spread, most of the countries decided long period of lockdowns which impacted the production and supply chains. This had also caused decrease in capacity utilizations and industrial productions in many countries which resulted with imbalance of maritime trade between countries that increased the freight costs. In this study, cause and effect relations of trade parameters, supply chain parameters, demographic data and logistics data on disruptions of global supply chains have been depicted for specifically Turkey and China since China is the biggest importer of Turkey. Due to this disruption, mainly exports from Turkey to China has been impacted in food, chemical and mining sectors. This study is helpful to plan in which sectors; the actions should be taken by the government bodies or managers. Based on findings of this study, new policies such as onshore activities should consider to overcome the logistics and supply chain disruptions in global supply chains. This study has been presented beneficial implications for the government, policymakers and academia.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in young children attending day-care centres in Belgium, May 2020 to February 2022.

Presence of SARS-CoV-2 was monitored in nasopharyngeal samples from young children aged 6-30 months attending day-care centres (DCCs) in Belgium from May 2020-February 2022. SARS-CoV-2 carriage among DCC children was only detected from November 2021, after emergence of Delta and Omicron variants, in 9 of the 42 DCCs screened. In only one DCC, two children tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the same sampling time point, suggesting limited transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgian DCCs among young children during the studied period.

Resilience and complexity measurement for energy efficient global supply chains in disruptive events.

The whole world is faced with the COVID-19 epidemic that causes major disruptions in global supply chains. The aim of study is to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on energy efficient global supply chains (SCs) and to model the global supply chain resilience and energy management affected during the COVID-19 considering trade between Turkey and China, and Turkey and the EU. In this study, firstly using System Dynamics (SD) model, the behavior of countries against COVID-19 for a certain period of time is observed, subsequently the increase in complexity is analyzed with entropy measurement to determine whether the systems are resilient or not and to mark the differences arising from reporting in the first and second wave of the pandemic in the developed model. It is determined that the second wave reporting differences is less than first wave reporting differences except Turkey. From the learning effect perspective, it has been seen that the effect on the economy and foreign trade are less than first wave of pandemic even though the number of patients originating in the second wave are higher. It means that countries responded to the second wave of COVID-19 in a more resilient way. It is found that as a major finding of this study, perceived complexity of the system decreases in the second wave because of the resilience of supply chain considering learning effect and centralized decision making ensure increasing resilience and resilience measure in global supply chains. The study is highly helpful for governments, decision makers and managers to understand and manage the impacts of COVID-19 on global supply chains being resilient and energy efficient.

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 - a serial prospective cross-sectional nationwide study of residual samples, Belgium, March to October 2020.

BackgroundTo control epidemic waves, it is important to know the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and its evolution over time in relation to the control measures taken.AimTo assess the evolving SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and seroincidence related to the first national lockdown in Belgium, we performed a nationwide seroprevalence study, stratified by age, sex and region using 3,000-4,000 residual samples during seven periods between 30 March and 17 October 2020.MethodsWe analysed residual sera from ambulatory patients for IgG antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein with a semiquantitative commercial ELISA. Weighted seroprevalence (overall and by age category and sex) and seroincidence during seven consecutive periods were estimated for the Belgian population while accommodating test-specific sensitivity and specificity.ResultsThe weighted overall seroprevalence initially increased from 1.8% (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0-2.6) to 5.3% (95% CrI: 4.2-6.4), implying a seroincidence of 3.4% (95% CrI: 2.4-4.6) between the first and second collection period over a period of 3 weeks during lockdown (start lockdown mid-March 2020). Thereafter, seroprevalence stabilised, however, significant decreases were observed when comparing the third with the fifth, sixth and seventh period, resulting in negative seroincidence estimates after lockdown was lifted. We estimated for the last collection period mid-October 2020 a weighted overall seroprevalence of 4.2% (95% CrI: 3.1-5.2).ConclusionDuring lockdown, an initially small but increasing fraction of the Belgian population showed serologically detectable signs of exposure to SARS-CoV-2, which did not further increase when confinement measures eased and full lockdown was lifted.

Infant Pneumococcal Carriage in Belgium Not Affected by COVID-19 Containment Measures.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is an important and frequently carried respiratory pathogen that has the potential to cause serious invasive diseases, such as pneumonia, meningitis, and sepsis. Young children and older adults are among the most vulnerable to developing serious disease. With the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic and the concomitant restrictive measures, invasive disease cases caused by respiratory bacterial species, including pneumococci, decreased substantially. Notably, the stringency of the containment measures as well as the visible reduction in the movement of people appeared to coincide with the drop in invasive disease cases. One could argue that wearing protective masks and adhering to social distancing guidelines to halt the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, also led to a reduction in the person-to-person transmission of respiratory bacterial species. Although plausible, this conjecture is challenged by novel data obtained from our nasopharyngeal carriage study which is performed yearly in healthy daycare center attending children. A sustained and high pneumococcal carriage rate was observed amid periods of stringent restrictive measures. This finding prompts us to revisit the connection between nasopharyngeal colonization and invasion and invites us to look closer at the nasopharyngeal microbiome as a whole.

No SARS-CoV-2 carriage observed in children attending daycare centers during the intial weeks of the epidemic in Belgium.

To gain knowledge about the role of young children attending daycare in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, a random sample of children (n = 84) aged between 6 and 30 months attending daycare in Belgium was studied shortly after the start of the epidemic (February 29th) and before the lockdown (March 18th) by performing in-house SARS-CoV-2 real-time polymerase chain reaction. No asymptomatic carriage of SARS-CoV-2 was detected, whereas common cold symptoms were common (51.2%). Our study shows that in Belgium, there was no sign of early introduction into daycare centers at the moment children being not yet isolated at home, although the virus was clearly circulating. It is clear that more evidence is needed to understand the actual role of young children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and their infection risk when attending daycare.